July 14, 2025 – 12:00 ET
1. Market Snapshot & Regime
SPY Spot: 623.95 (Prev 623.62)
SPX: 6 261.36 (Prev 6 259.75)
VIX: 17.12 ↑ from 16.40
Implied vs. Realized Vol: IV 10.2% > RV 9.96% (vol premium)
GEX Regime: Positive (dealer gamma long)
DEX Regime: Positive (dealer delta long)
Regime Class: Normal
Dealers remain net long both convexity and directional, dampening spot swings and encouraging a measured drift.
2. Order Flow & Pinning Forces
Call/Put Volume Ratio: 0.79 (light puts)
Call Flow Imbalance: +538 K
Put Flow Imbalance: +288 K
Net Flow Bias: +251 K (lean bullish)
Key Pin Levels:
625 → 13.8% of OI
624 (Spot) → 11.6%
623 → 7.0%
Aggregate “Pin” Above/Below Spot:
Above: 1.21 B (5.61%)
Below: 1.05 B (4.01%)
Heavy open interest around 624–625 exerts a magnetic effect, as dealer hedges buy low/sell high into that zone.
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